Fate is Fragile, You Shouldn't Be
Most of us don’t appreciate the fragility of fate.
The world is often altered by tiny events with enormous consequences. Consider what happened during the 1948 Texas Senate Race.
Lyndon Johnson was hospitalized for extreme pain from a kidney stone. In a moment of fever fueled delusion, Johnson ordered his assistant to announce his withdrawal from the race. The assistant argued, but Johnson was adamant.
“Do it right now!” Johnson ordered.
His assistant agreed and left the room. But he disobeyed Johnson’s orders and never announced the withdrawal.
Johnson, of course, recovered, won the election, became Vice President under JFK, and ultimately became the 36th President of the United States. But had his assistant followed his orders and withdrew him from the race, Johnson’s political career would’ve been over. No Senate seat. No Vice Presidency. No Oval Office.
And maybe no Vietnam? It’s impossible to predict an alternate universe, but it’s certainly possible that Vietnam would’ve been a minor conflict instead of a generation altering war and a wedge through American society.
And it all hinged on one tiny event in a Texas hospital room.
Now consider George H.W. Bush. As a fighter pilot in WWII, Bush flew a combat mission over Chichi-Jima in September of 1944. Although his plane was hit, he finished the mission and successfully bombed his target. Then he turned back to sea knowing the situation was grim. Smoke billowed into the cockpit, burning his eyes and filling his lungs. Bush ordered his men to don their chutes and jump. Then, he ejected himself.
As he flew from the cockpit at 2,000 feet, his face smashed against the tail of the plane. Bush plunged into the Pacific Ocean, bloody and battered, but alive. He swam to a life raft and paddled against the current carrying him toward enemy territory. After several hours floating alone and injured in the ocean, an American submarine rescued him.
The bodies of Bush’s crewmates were never recovered.
Imagine if Bush died that day like his crewmates. We would’ve never known his name. He would’ve never become the 41st President of the United States. And he never would’ve had a son who became the 43rd President.
Maybe the initial US occupation of the Middle East would not have occurred. Without this occupation, maybe Al Qaeda wouldn’t have had the anti US sentiment to grow into an international terrorist organization. And maybe, just maybe, 9/11 never would’ve happened.
Of course if 9/11 hadn’t happened, neither would the ensuing wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Again, the course of US history, changed forever.
All from one relatively inconsequential mission on a September day in 1944.
You can find countless examples like these—events that, had they played out differently, would have drastically altered the course of history. Almost every time, it’s a tiny event with an outsized consequence. Morgan Housel wrote about some excellent examples here.
If these tiny events can alter the history of the world, imagine how easily little events could impact your life. Your company could close shop and move your job across the country. A car accident could flip you from a first round draft pick to a permanent spectator. A routine surgery could lead to a prescription pill addiction.
Or on a happier note, one viral video could lead you to a professional singing career. A chance conversation with a stranger could be how you meet your spouse. A missed flight connection could be how you find your new home.
Fate is fragile. It’s good to have a plan, but it’s also important to remember that life won’t unfold exactly as you plan.
When fate is uncertain—and it always is—we’re best served by finding balance.
From a career perspective, build skills that are valuable across companies and industries. Learn to write clearly, speak persuasively, solve challenging problems, and lead groups of people.
From a fitness perspective, be diverse. Build strength. Build endurance. Build hand-eye coordination. Focus on flexibility and mobility. Find different ways to elevate your heart rate and challenge your muscles.
From a financial perspective, create multiple streams of income, and live below your means. The loss of a job isn’t as devastating when you have a side business. A market downturn won't be as worrisome when your expenses are low and your emergency fund is full.
From a relationship perspective, spread your love. Prioritize your family, but make time for friends. Make older friends. Make younger friends. Befriend people your own age. Have work friends. Find friends who share your hobbies. Spread your socialization wide, and don’t root your identity in any one group.
From a mental perspective, find stillness. When your plans fall apart and the world feels crazy, you’ll need to spend time with your thoughts. Build that practice before you need it. Take long walks, sit in silence, find fun hobbies, and reflect in writing.
Everything I’m suggesting will help you build antifragility, a term coined by Nassim Taleb. Fragile people break from stress. Robust people resist stress. Antifragile people become better through stress.
We know little events will upend our plans. We’ve seen how minor details alter history in major ways. From these lessons, we learn to expect uncertainty, to plan for it, and to build our lives in a way where we’re prepared to adapt.
History will unfold in weird ways. The sooner we accept that fact and prepare for it, the better our lives will become. Fate is fragile, but we don’t have to be.
Photo by Raychel Sanner on Unsplash
